We're in trouble but there is a way out. It is still possible to keep a lid on climate change, preventing temperatures from rising by more than 2 °C, the limit beyond which it would be difficult to adapt. But only if we part with some serious cash.
To do this, we need to reduce annual global emissions of carbon dioxide from the 30 gigatonnes released today to 15 gigatonnes by 2050. That is a big drop, but it can be done, according to a report from Imperial College London.
To cut our emissions, fossil fuels need to be replaced with low-carbon energy sources such as nuclear power and renewables, and fossil fuel power stations need to be fitted with carbon-capture technology.
Industry also needs to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. Steel makers, for instance, will need to replace blast furnaces that rely on coal with electric arc furnaces. Society must also become much more energy-efficient, by better insulating buildings, for example.
Doing all this will cost a cool $2 trillion per year, or 1 per cent of global GDP in 2050. "It sounds like a big figure," says lead author Nilah Shah, but it is probably cheaper than the alternative. In 2006, the economist Nicholas Stern estimated that if left unchecked, climate change could wipe out 5 per cent or more of global GDP per year indefinitely. Compared to that, cutting emissions is cheap. "It's not going to cost the Earth, quite the opposite," says Shah.
Cut! Cut! Cut!
So how to go about it? The authors calculate that the US, Canada, China and India can achieve over half of the emissions cuts between them. "Those four countries can do 54 per cent of the heavy lifting," says Shah. But ultimately, all countries need to agree to cut their emissions. That includes countries in sub-Saharan Africa that currently don't emit much, because their economies and emissions are likely to grow. "We won't hit the targets unless they participate," says Shah.
Governments are currently aiming to agree a global deal on climate change in 2015.
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