Dare we hope for a global climate treaty next year?


The world is getting greener and the political appetite for change growing – and the UN's lead climate negotiator is infectiously optimistic


HER job is to persuade the world to stop climate change. And Christiana Figueres, the UN's lead climate negotiator, certainly talks the talk (see "We'll live to see a low-carbon world: UN climate chief").


But then, given her job description you'd hardly expect her to declare the process doomed. Should we be seduced by her optimism?


The world has certainly moved on since the let-down at the 2009 Copenhagen climate talks. By 2016, renewables are expected to supply more electricity than every other source bar coal. Even big businesses are starting to turn various shades of green. And we've learned how to get richer without emitting more: last year, for the first time, the growth rate of global CO2 emissions slowed while GDP rose. US emissions are now roughly where there were in the mid-1990s while its GDP is back on the up and up.


There are also signs of growing political appetite for change – a commodity sorely lacking in Copenhagen. The European Union has committed to large emissions cuts. China still runs on coal, but has a pressing reason for wanting out: smog is now too big a health problem to ignore. And last year the US and China launched a climate-change working group with joint plans that include carbon capture and storage, smart grids and energy efficiency.


Does this all point towards a planet-saving agreement next year? Not yet. At the latest round of talks in Bonn, Germany, this week, tensions between old rivals were still apparent. Led by China, the G77 coalition of developing nations insisted that rich countries had to give more – more cuts, and lots more money.


And so caution is in order, but Figueres's optimism does seem to be catching. Delegates in Bonn point to China's positive mood and Europe's raised ambitions as signs of a significant shift.


We may yet be in for another Copenhagen-style fiasco. But if diplomacy and infectious enthusiasm count for anything, Figueres looks a good bet to make the breakthrough the world so urgently needs.


This article appeared in print under the headline "Green-tinted glasses"


Issue 2960 of New Scientist magazine


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