The tide may be turning in West Africa's Ebola epidemic. In early October, the World Health Organization vowed to slash transmission of the virus in 60 days by isolating 70 per cent of cases and safely burying 70 per cent of those who have died. That deadline passed on 1 December, and the picture is mixed but encouraging.
"Well over 70 per cent of Ebola deaths are now being buried safely," says Bruce Aylward of the WHO. And more than 70 per cent of reported cases are now isolated – but only in Liberia and Guinea. In western Sierra Leone isolation facilities were built too slowly and the epidemic is still spreading fast, but as facilities become available, it is expected to slow.
"Across West Africa, we are no longer seeing exponential growth," says Aylward. There were just under 1000 new cases in the first week of October, and 1100 in the last week of November – almost a plateau.
Now the task is to track down every chain of transmission to snuff the virus out, he says. It could come roaring back if early progress leads to complacency, he warns. As a case in point, the UN only has $920 million of the $1.55 billion it estimates it will need to keep up the fight through to the end of March 2015.
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