LAST year was the warmest on record, even though El Niño failed to show up. Most of the previous hottest years, such as 1998, have come with the warmer sea surfaces that El Niño brings.
If there ever was a warming hiatus, it is over. The long-term trend continues. The world is warming by 0.16 °C per decade.
The effects are evident: record heatwaves, as in Australia, and record floods – and snow – in many places, with Mozambique and the US the latest to feel the effects. Sea level is rising ever faster. Sea ice in the Arctic is vanishing.
But there's a blip in the big picture. The winter sea ice around Antarctica has grown slightly over the past few decades. It is not clear why (see "Thaw point: Why is Antarctica's sea ice still growing?
The seas around Antarctica are hard to study, and computer models are missing some key details. Nonetheless, it is a bit of an embarrassment that climate scientists aren't sure exactly what's going on.
However, it would be wrong to take comfort from this blip – or exploit it to claim that scientists can't get their story straight. In just about every other way, the climate is changing as expected, or worse. This is not a new message, but with crunch UN climate talks coming at the end of the year, it bears repeating.
This article appeared in print under the headline "Cranking up the heat"
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