IS THE climate finally right for a new deal on emissions? Several major economies have pledged to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, meeting the UN's April deadline, with a view to signing a deal at a summit in Paris in December.
Top of the range is a 40 per cent cut from the European Union, relative to 1990 levels. The US has reiterated president Barack Obama's commitment to a 26 to 28 per cent emissions cut by 2025, relative to 2005 figures, which Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, a think tank in Berlin, Germany, says will entail doubling the US reduction rate to around 2.5 per cent a year.
The EU pledges trump this, but allow wiggle room to use carbon captured by forest growth and land-use changes as a route to compliance. That could weaken the pledge on industrial emissions "by a few percentage points", says Hare. Meanwhile, Mexico has pledged to cut emissions to 22 per cent below "business as usual" levels by 2030.
What sort of a deal this brings remains to be seen. The EU wants a legally binding agreement like the 1997 Kyoto Protocol; the US, China and others prefer voluntary commitments. David Victor of the University of California, San Diego, says the "bottom-up" approach of countries making voluntary commitments for international endorsement is more likely to succeed. "I am more optimistic than I've been in a very long time."
- Subscribe to New Scientist and you'll get:
- New Scientist magazine delivered every week
- Unlimited access to all New Scientist online content -
a benefit only available to subscribers - Great savings from the normal price
- Subscribe now!
If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.
