App takes the strain out of tricky moral dilemmas


FACING a moral quandary and want to do the right thing? Well, there's now an app for that.


Ethical Decision Making, as the iPhone app is helpfully named, doesn't need the details of your problem or the options you're considering. It simply asks you to consider each solution and rate it from five standpoints: utility, virtue, rights, justice and the common good. Each is actually shorthand for a framework developed by moral philosophers over the centuries. After that, you assign a weighting to each of these factors. You could, for example, give justice more emphasis than the rest. The app then scores the solution according to the customised moral framework you have just set up.


Distilling ethics down into an app might be problematic for some philosophers, but not for Miriam Schulman, associate director of the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University in California, where the app was developed.


"How do we use these very ancient traditions to help people who are making these really difficult decisions?" she asks. She says people could use the app for anything from weighing up whether to put their parents in a nursing home to choosing ethical investments.


The app has been tested with a group of school principals and in a communications class focused on ethical issues. One student said the tool changed her mind about how to handle an issue with her boyfriend.


Apps like these aren't a one-stop solution but can help initiate discussion, says Evan Selinger, a philosopher at the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York.


"If you come to this hoping it's going work out your ethics for you, you're up the creek," he says. "But if you see this as a tool to be used for conversation with other people, thinking out loud and expanding your mental models, it might make sense."


This article appeared in print under the headline "Let your phone help you tell right from wrong"


Issue 2971 of New Scientist magazine


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Scotland: What if independence goes horribly wrong?


On 18 September, the people of Scotland will vote on whether their country should become independent of the UK. This article is part of our "Four futures for an independent Scotland" special report, looking at the choices a newly independent Scotland could make


IT IS 2062, and the youngest people to vote in Scotland's referendum, then aged 16, are now approaching retirement age. A perfect storm of shifting demographics, dwindling oil and poor health has left those north of the border worse off than the rest of the UK, leading many to question whether they were right to vote "yes" all those years ago...


Back in the present, it is impossible to confidently predict what will happen should Scotland decide to go it alone. But three factors will come into play.


The first is an unavoidable fact of life: we are all getting older. Developed nations across the world are set to struggle with the effects of an ageing population over the next 50 years, but demographic projections suggest the impact will be felt even harder in Scotland.


The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), a think-tank in London, predicts that by 2062 Scotland's population will have grown by just 4.4 per cent, compared with 22.8 per cent in the UK as a whole. The problem for Scotland is that its under-65 population will shrink while its over-65s increase, putting big pressure on public finances.


The Scottish government says independence will allow the nation to pursue a very different immigration strategy to the rest of the UK. But if working-age migrants don't come as hoped, Scotland will find it more difficult to support its ageing population.


Things get worse when North Sea oil and gas are taken into account. "Oil revenues will almost certainly fall over the longer term," says David Phillips at the IFS. "If it takes decades, that would give Scotland time to adjust, although it would still involve some potentially painful choices."


Addressing the shortfall in revenues will mean higher taxes or a fall in living standards – something Scotland can ill afford: life expectancy is already 2.3 years lower for Scottish men than those in the rest of the UK. The difference is particularly stark in Glasgow, where life expectancy at birth is just 72.6 years for boys and 78.5 for girls, compared with the UK averages of 78.9 and 82.7 years. "Health is Scotland's Achilles' heel," says Gerry McCartney of NHS Scotland. And it's a relatively recent phenomenon.


The reason for the disparity is not entirely clear, as it is difficult to untangle the interconnected health effects of lifestyle, culture and economics, but inequality in Scotland certainly plays a role. "Quite a large proportion of the higher mortality is explicable simply by poverty and deprivation," says McCartney.


The Scottish government says a vote for independence will reduce inequality. But a study by David Comerford and David Eiser at the University of Stirling suggests that new Scottish powers to increase taxes or benefits may have little effect. That's because small nations can find it difficult to implement radically different policies to their larger neighbours: people can simply decide to cross the border in search of lower taxes, for example. This is particularly problematic when it comes to funding pensions, which depend on a thriving workforce. "Raising tax rates to provide pensions could be a self-defeating policy if it leads to an exodus of workers," says Comerford.


The voting age for the Scottish referendum has been lowered to 16 from the normal UK voting age of 18, to let teenagers have a say in their country's future. If independence goes wrong, a youthful yes vote could prove a big mistake.


Read more: "Four futures for an independent Scotland"


This article appeared in print under the headline "Don't look back in anger from 2062"


Issue 2971 of New Scientist magazine


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The US is right to indict China's state hacker unit



Continue reading page |1|2


The US is hoping to shock China into talks over its industrial cyber espionage programme, says a foreign relations expert


At first glance, the US Justice Department's 31-count indictment of five Chinese military officers for hacking into the computers of six US corporations, in order to steal billions of dollars' worth of industrial secrets, seems a bit odd. No way are Beijing's leaders going to extradite members of their elite cyberwarfare unit to stand trial in a US criminal court.


At second glance, the move still seems strange and possibly counterproductive. The United States engages in cyber-offensive operations, too. Doesn't president Obama – who must have approved the indictment and its high-profile rollout – worry that China will strike back by revealing some secret US plots?


Besides, won't this whole business endanger US-Chinese relations, and at a time when Russian president Vladimir Putin is doing his own towards Beijing? (Fostering a US-Chinese alliance against Russia makes more sense than provoking a Russian-Chinese alliance against the US.)


But at third glance, there is logic to what the Obama administration is doing, and although it's loaded with risk, it's on balance a good move, maybe even a necessary one.


Detailed evidence


For years, the Chinese – especially, but not exclusively, a Shanghai-based department of the People's Liberation Army called Unit 61398 (where all of the indicted officers work) – have been hacking into the computer networks of US corporations, defence firms, and financial institutions. President Obama and a few cabinet secretaries have raised the issue in several diplomatic forums. Each time, Chinese officials have denied the charges and challenged the Americans to produce some evidence. The indictment is, in this sense, the reply: here is the evidence – and in staggering detail.


When Obama tried to spark a dialogue on the issue last June, at the summit in Palm Springs, California, Chinese president Xi Jinping called him out on the hypocrisy. The first leaks from Edward Snowden had just appeared, revealing that the US was hacking into Chinese networks. How, Xi asked, could Obama complain about Chinese hacking when he was hacking, too? (Of course, Xi still denied that his government was responsible for any of it.)


US officials, then and now, have drawn a distinction: China hacks into US computer networks to steal secrets and enrich its state-run corporations; the US hacks into Chinese networks only to protect national security. The Chinese and others, including many American critics, have scoffed at the fine line. First, to China, economic enrichment is national security. Second, to some, hacking is hacking is hacking.


Security secrets


In fact, though, there are real distinctions here. The Chinese cyberwarfare units don't just hack into corporate networks for trade secrets. They also – just like their counterparts in the US, Russia, Britain, France, Israel, Iran, North Korea and other countries – hack into military and intelligence networks for national security secrets. The Obama administration is saying: the latter, the realm of traditional spying, is fair game; the former, the cyber-age equivalent of industrial espionage, is not.


For some time Obama has said he wants to negotiate "rules of the road" for this new, anarchic domain of cybertools and cyberweapons, laying out which kinds of networks are legitimate military targets and which kinds are vital to the workings of a civil, lawful society – and should, therefore, be protected (whether by treaty, international law, mutual asset, or whatever) from nation-state hackers.


Obama has made repeated overtures to the Chinese because they are the world's most indiscriminate hackers and because the two nations have other diplomatic ties and interests; in other words, diplomacy on this issue with China is a plausible notion. The indictment is Obama's way of turning up the pressure – and of showing just how much the US knows about what they're doing. (The Chinese may think they've deeply penetrated the world of US secrets; but they may not have known, till now, just how deeply the US has penetrated their own – so much so that, when they hack into American networks, US hackers see what their hackers are seeing.)


The indictment is interesting not only for the crimes it's seeking to punish, but also for the crimes it's letting brush by. The statutes that the Justice Department cites fall mainly under 18 US Code 1030, "Fraud and related activity in connection with computers." The Chinese hackers are charged under those sections of the statute that deal with gaining access to files of financial value – but not other sections that deal with damage to national security, although there's plenty of evidence that they engage in that sort of hacking as well. An explicit decision was made to ignore that sort of hacking, to draw a distinction between military and industrial espionage.


Long history


It's not that Obama is giving military hackers a free ride. The Pentagon spends billions of dollars a year trying to make its own networks more secure. But he recognises that this is what militaries do.



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Today on New Scientist


Plastic rubbish takes egg's place in albatross nest

Plastic from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is finding its way into albatross nests – and can prove lethal to their young


American chestnut set for genetically modified revival

New strains of American chestnuts are resistant to a devastating fungus and pass on resistance to their offspring, suggesting that the trees can be restored


Pirates incoming! Ship radar keeps watch and hits back

A system called WatchStander looks for small vessels aiming to intercept ships, automatically sounding an alarm or launching countermeasures


Ultimate solar system could contain 60 Earths

The laws of physics potentially allow one binary star system to contain a surprisingly large number of Earth-like planets, assuming there is enough matter to form the worlds


Scotland: Wind will power the Scots' green ambitions

Many fear independence will make it too pricey for Scotland to generate the equivalent of 100 per cent of its own power consumption with renewables. Not so


Feedback: Primary school puzzler

Mysteries of progress, Telepathic Transport for London, The Brussels Interpretation of political mechanics and more


SpaceX unveils sleek, reusable Dragon crew capsule

At a gala in California, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed what could become the first private vehicle to ferry people to and from the space station


Curved screens make our brains light up with pleasure

Why are ever more curved-screen gadgets being launched? It seems bendiness has deep aesthetic appeal and will spur new materials and manufacturing methods


Eye candy: Video game visuals that hijack your brain

Game makers are hiring psychologists to develop a formula for compulsive behaviour. What are the ingredients that can hook us onto the simplest of games?


Scotland: Four futures for an independent Scotland

If the people of Scotland vote for their country's independence, this brand new nation could have four very different futures


Teen growth spurt left Richard III with crooked spine

The skeleton found in a Leicester car park in 2012 shows signs of adolescent onset idiopathic scoliosis – a condition that causes the spine to curve relatively late in development


Hidden paintings of Angkor Wat appear in digital images

Mysterious 16th-century art from Cambodia's legendary temple lives again in enhanced digital images that reveal more than the human eye can see


Europe's eagles under threat from vulture-killing drug

A drug that has almost wiped out south Asia's once-numerous vultures also seems to kill eagles, and it is now available in Europe and Africa


Suicide watch prison sensor keeps an eye on inmates

A sensor that keeps tabs on inmates' breathing rate and heartbeat could save lives in the slammer


Obsession engineers: Mind control the Candy Crush way

How do you design a hit video game? Psychologists are diagnosing what gets us addicted – a recipe for obsession that could hurt or heal us


Scotland: Ape Israel to build a start-up nation

If an independent Scotland decides become a serious player on the world's tech start-up scene, it would do well to look to Israel's success for inspiration


We are killing species at 1000 times the natural rate

Bad news, we are extinguishing species at an astonishing rate without knowing how many we can lose before ecosystems collapse


Scotland: Oil and gas at heart of Scots' future wealth

There is up to 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas left under the North Sea that could kick-start Scotland's future as an independent nation


Forget the dentist's drill, use lasers to heal teeth

Shining light on stem cells beneath a damaged tooth could make the tissue at the core of our teeth regrow


If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.



Plastic rubbish takes egg's place in albatross nest


(Image: Greg Schubert/USFWS)


Our rubbish has reached the farthest corners of the Earth. This Laysan albatross is practising its nesting skills in one of the world's most remote places – the Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge in Hawaii. But instead of practising with an abandoned egg as it normally would, it is sitting on a plastic ball used for baseball batting practice.


The ball did not come from a local baseball field. It washed ashore from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, an accumulation of floating rubbish that circles the central north Pacific ocean. Every year, more than 50 tons of rubbish wash up on the islands of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), which includes Midway Atoll.


Play-acting with a plastic ball seems to be harmless for this bird, and Laysan albatrosses have been known to use all sorts of egg-shaped objects to hone their parenting skills. But other plastic rubbish can be deadly for birds. Laysan albatrosses feed on the surface, where they scoop up plastic objects such as lighters and bottle caps in addition to food such as fish and squid. Midway staff estimate that the albatrosses feed some 5 tons of plastic each year to their chicks, with fatal results: as seen in a series of shocking images by photographer Chris Jordan.


This albatross has been chosen as the poster bird for the PMNM's campaign to reduce marine debris.


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American chestnut set for genetically modified revival


The near-extinct American chestnut looks set to make a comeback. Genetically modified trees, which are resistant to a deadly fungus that has decimated the species, have produced the first resistant chestnuts. From these seeds, countless resistant trees could be grown in the wild.


An estimated 4 billion American chestnut trees (Castanea dentata ) once covered the US, accounting for a quarter of all US hardwood trees. But in around 1900, a lethal fungus called Cryphonectria parasitica was accidentally imported in chestnut trees from Asia, and by the 1950s it had almost completely wiped out the American chestnut.


Over the past 20 years, the American Chestnut Research and Restoration Project has been trying to turn the situation around. Led by William Powell and Charles Maynard of the State University of New York in Syracuse, the team has used genetic engineering to create a strain of fungus-resistant chestnuts called Darling4.


The modified trees contain a gene from wheat called OxO, which makes an enzyme called oxalate oxidase that destroys the toxic oxalic acid made by the fungus, preventing cankers from forming on the tree. By-products from the enzyme's action help the tree's own natural defences to fight off the fungus.


Keep off my tree


Powell and Maynard's group have now shown that the Darling4 trees and their first-generation offspring are more resistant than unaltered American chestnuts, but less so than the naturally resistant Chinese chestnuts.


The team tested leaves and stems that were deliberately infected with the fungus. Powell says it would be better to test entire trees, but that will have to wait until the trees grow larger, which may take another two years.


The best news is that the resistance seems to be heritable through the chestnut seeds. This will make restoration simpler and faster, because growing trees from seedlings is faster than the current practice – growing trees from tissue-cultured plantlets derived from embryos found in the few surviving trees.


Newer strains are proving more resistant, outstripping the Chinese chestnuts. In a 2013 study, the Darling11, Darling311 and Darling215 strains outperformed Chinese chestnuts in the leaf and stem tests. In one experiment, leaves from conventional American chestnut trees sustained damage on average over 119 square millimetres, and Chinese chestnut leaves over 38, but the best new strains limited the damage to just 5 square millimetres (Transgenic Research, doi.org/szc).


Pollen from the Darling11 and Darling311 strains was used to create these crosses (Image: Charles Maynard/American Chestnut Research and Restoration Project)


The ultimate goal is to release the modified chestnuts into the wild. The team planted the first Darling4 chestnut in 2006, and there are now over 1000 modified trees at various sites in New York state, says Maynard.


"We hope to obtain regulatory approval for trees to be grown outside permitted plots within three to five years, at which point our transgenic trees could potentially be planted anywhere in the US," says Maynard. "Once approved, they'll be distributed to the public in a not-for-profit programme to restore the American chestnut tree."


Breed them strong


There is also progress in a parallel programme that was begun in the 1970s. The American Chestnut Foundation in Asheville, North Carolina, is developing resistant American chestnuts by crossing them with Chinese chestnuts. This is a painstaking job: the crosses with most resistance must be picked out from each generation, and the Chinese component gradually bred out.


The latest generation is 94 per cent American chestnut, and some strains have resistance approaching that of the Chinese trees. "We can't exceed it like Bill's doing, we can only match it," says Sara Fern Fitzsimmons of Pennsylvania State University in University Park. But she says the conventionally bred chestnuts may be more popular in areas where genetically modified crops are not normally grown.


Genetic modification has one key advantage, says Maynard. The wheat OxO gene alone confers strong resistance, whereas resistance in Chinese chestnuts relies on at least three genes, so it is harder to transfer. For extra security, his team is now creating strains with both the OxO gene and the Chinese chestnut genes.


Journal reference: Plant Science, DOI: 10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.04.004


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Pirates incoming! Ship radar keeps watch and hits back


BEFORE dawn on 5 May, two pirates armed with knives boarded a ship in the Sierra Leone port of Freetown. They took the duty cadet hostage, stole some mooring ropes then slipped back into the darkness. No one saw them coming, but a new kind of intelligent radar might have done.


The system, called WatchStander, uses radar mounted on either side of a ship to scan the surrounding water for small objects that look like they are moving to intercept. It can automatically sound an alarm and dispense countermeasures to deter the approaching vessels.


The system is meant to tackle one of the biggest issues with preventing piracy at sea: spotting them coming. "The problem is that pirates use skiffs – small, fast fishing boats with a very low profile on the surface of the ocean," says Giacomo Persi Paoli, a piracy analyst with the RAND Corporation in Cambridge, UK.


Large ships' radar systems are designed to pick up large objects that are collision risks and to filter out waves. This means they often miss skiffs. By contrast, WatchStander's radar uses shorter radio wavelengths, allowing it to see smaller objects.


If WatchStander detects a skiff that's heading to intercept the ship, it will automatically target the boat it deems most threatening with a countermeasure. The current system shines a powerful strobe light designed to confuse incoming pirates.


In a test earlier this year, WatchStander was deployed on a ship carrying liquid natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, south of Iran. The system detected a swarm of Iranian fishing boats crossing the ship's path long before anyone on board saw them. "These were 12 Iranian skiffs that came bowling past us. You couldn't see them at first. We were getting ready to run a test on the system when all of a sudden the alarm went off," says WatchStander founder David Rigsby. "The ship's crew said they are smugglers, you see them all the time out in the Strait."


Paoli likes the idea of the anti-pirate system, but worries that allowing it to automatically activate countermeasures might unfairly target innocent fishing skiffs or other boats. "The wakes of these big commercial ships attract fish to the surface," he says. "The fishermen wait for ships to pass and then go full speed behind along the wake and catch the fish."


This article appeared in print under the headline "Pirates incoming! Smart radar stands watch"


Issue 2971 of New Scientist magazine


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Ultimate solar system could contain 60 Earths


Why settle for one habitable planet, when you can have 60? An astrophysicist has designed the ultimate star system by cramming in as many Earth-like worlds as possible without breaking the laws of physics. Such a monster cosmic neighbourhood is unlikely to exist in reality, but it could inspire future exoplanet studies.


Sean Raymond of Bordeaux Observatory in France started his game of fantasy star system with a couple of ground rules. First, the arrangement of planets must be scientifically plausible. Second, they must be gravitationally stable over billions of years: there is no point in putting planets into orbit only to watch them spiral into the sun.


"The arguments were based on the recent scientific literature as well as some simple calculations I did," says Raymond. In some cases it was impossible to choose between two scenarios because of a lack of data, so he just picked the one he liked best.


A red dwarf star could support 24 habitable, Earth-sized planets (Image: planetplanet.net)


To start with he chose a red dwarf star as the system's host because they have a lower mass than stars like our sun and so live longer, giving a stable habitable zone – the region around a star in which liquid water can exist.


Next, he used a couple of tricks to boost the planetary potential of his system. An Earth-sized planet can also have an almost Earth-sized moon, with the two worlds orbiting around a central point. What's more, two pairs of planets can orbit a star at the same distance, provided that they are separated by 60 degrees, thanks to a couple of gravitationally stable points. In our solar system these points are normally inhabited by asteroids, rather than planets, but nothing rules out a multiple planet scenario. Objects in this configuration are known as Trojans – Jupiter has thousands, and even Earth has one.


There is room for six of these orbital configurations in the habitable zone of a red dwarf, giving a total of 24 habitable planets in one system. But it turns out there is also another way to build a packed system: Jupiters.


A star system with four gas giants could support 36 habitable worlds (Image: planetplanet.net)


Gas giants such as Jupiter are not habitable to life as we know it, but they can be orbited by Earth-like moons. In our solar system, Europa and Enceladus, which orbit Jupiter and Saturn, respectively, are prime candidates for extraterrestrial life. Raymond calculates that a red dwarf could hold four Jupiter-like planets, each with five Earth-like moons. What's more, the Trojan trick can allow another two Earth-like planets on either side of the orbiting Jupiters, upping the total number of habitable worlds around the red dwarf to 36.


Finally, Raymond turned his star system into a binary one, with two red dwarfs separated by roughly the distance from our sun to the edge of the solar system. Theory allows one star to carry the Earth-only configuration, and the other to carry the Earth-plus-Jupiters configuration. This creates the ultimate star system, with 60 habitable planets to choose from.


"It is thought provoking," says Mikko Tuomi of the University of Hertfordshire in Hatfield, UK, who helped to discover the star system with the largest number of known planets, but the odds of something like it actually forming in the real universe are slim to none. "This would be due to the lack of matter at or near the habitable zone in the accretion disk from which planets form," says Tuomi. Sufficiently advanced aliens could build a system like this, he says, but it is not clear why they would bother.


"I admit that it would be extremely fortuitous for nature to produce a system that was so spectacular," says Raymond. "Still, each piece of the system is plausible and even expected from simulations of planetary formation."


Coming up with the system has also thrown up new scientific questions, he says. "I ended up doing a lot of research into the different pieces of the puzzle, and coming at it from this point of view gave me some new ideas I'm planning to test in the future."


The ultimate solar system: a binary star system supporting 60 habitable planets (Image: planetplanet.net)


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Scotland: Wind will power the Scots' green ambitions


On 18 September, the people of Scotland will vote on whether their country should become independent of the UK. This article is part of our Four futures for an independent Scotland special report, looking at the choices a newly independent Scotland could make.


Scotland is arguably one of the greenest countries in Europe. It produces 40 per cent of Scottish electricity demand from renewable sources, and models suggest this could rise to 67 per cent by 2018. That's closing in on the government's goal of producing enough green power to supply the equivalent of all of Scottish demand by 2020.


Some fear that independence means this goal will be too expensive for Scotland because offshore wind is expensive. "It's silly to say it's going to be expensive," says David Toke of the University of Aberdeen, "when in fact it can be done pretty cheaply onshore." (see diagram, above right)


Toke and his colleagues published estimates last year suggesting that independence would ruin Scotland's chances of hitting its green goal. But later that year the team made a U-turn: they now say that it will be cheaper for Scotland to pursue its 2020 target as an independent nation.


What changed? Newly announced nuclear power stations will need funding in the UK and new financial policies heavily favour nuclear over wind power.


So it now makes more sense for a green Scottish consumer to vote for independence, says Toke. Electricity bills will still go up – by about 7 per cent, he claims – and this will pay for onshore wind power. In the UK, bills would rise by 8 to 10 per cent to pay for new nuclear, Toke says.


An independent Scotland will need a close electrical alliance with England and Wales. A power-sharing market that allows all those involved to navigate the peaks and troughs of supply and demand is a tricky business. This balancing act is particularly tough when fickle renewables are involved, but there is a precedent in Scandinavia. Nord Pool is a power-sharing market on a grid that runs largely on renewables.


Denmark, for instance, has a huge amount of wind power. When it produces more than it can use, it simply sends it out to its Nord Pool partners and makes money on the transaction. But wind does not offer constant energy so the Danes need back up. In part that comes from Norway, which can sell its abundant hydropower to the Danes in their times of need. Accordingly, Scotland's incumbent Scottish National Party (SNP) has proposed an "energy partnership" with the UK.


Independence will allow the party to take control of national regulation, and implement measures like better loans for companies wishing to build new renewable power stations or premium rates for renewable energy companies.


A further measure that Toke and his colleagues advocate is to allow small companies and even individuals to profit from feed-in tariffs. Existing feed-in tariffs from the UK government mean only very large power companies can sell renewable power to the grid. The result would be a more distributed power grid, which has the benefit of being less vulnerable to extreme weather events that can knock out centralised grids if they hit key power stations.


With all these measures on the table, Toke estimates that Scotland can meet its 100 per cent target by 2023 for less money than it would if it remained part of the UK.


Don't be fooled by all this green ambition – Scotland won't be kicking the oil habit. Its target is to produce the equivalent of 100 per cent of Scottish demand with renewables, but the country will remain a big energy exporter. The excess will come largely from its traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power resources.


But the SNP says emphasis will be placed on developing carbon dioxide capture and storage for its fossil fuel power stations. It's not easy being green, but independence might make it a little easier.


If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.



Scotland: Wind will power the Scots' green ambitions


On 18 September, the people of Scotland will vote on whether their country should become independent of the UK. This article is part of our "Four futures for an independent Scotland" special report, looking at the choices a newly independent Scotland could make


SCOTLAND is arguably one of the greenest countries in Europe. It produces 40 per cent of Scottish electricity demand from renewable sources, and models suggest this could rise to 67 per cent by 2018 (see diagram). That's closing in on the government's goal of producing enough green power to supply the equivalent of all of Scottish demand by 2020.


Some fear that independence means this goal will be too expensive for Scotland because offshore wind is expensive. "It's silly to say it's going to be expensive," says David Toke of the University of Aberdeen, "when in fact it can be done pretty cheaply onshore."


Toke and his colleagues published estimates last year suggesting that independence would ruin Scotland's chances of hitting its green goal. But later that year the team made a U-turn: they now say that it will be cheaper for Scotland to pursue its 2020 target as an independent nation.


What changed? Newly announced nuclear power stations will need funding in the UK and new financial policies heavily favour nuclear over wind power. So it now makes more sense for a green Scottish consumer to vote for independence, says Toke. Electricity bills will still go up – by about 7 per cent, he claims – and this will pay for onshore wind power. In the UK, bills would rise by 8 to 10 per cent to pay for new nuclear, Toke says.


An independent Scotland will need a close electrical alliance with England and Wales. A power-sharing market that allows all those involved to navigate the peaks and troughs of supply and demand is a tricky business. This balancing act is particularly tough when fickle renewables are involved, but there is a precedent in Scandinavia. Nord Pool is a power-sharing market on a grid that runs largely on renewables. Accordingly, the incumbent Scottish National Party (SNP) has proposed an "energy partnership" with the UK.


Don't be fooled by all this green ambition – Scotland won't be kicking the oil habit. Its target is to produce the equivalent of 100 per cent of Scottish demand with renewables, but the country will remain a big energy exporter. The excess will come largely from its traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power resources.


But the SNP says emphasis will be placed on developing carbon dioxide capture and storage for its fossil fuel power stations. It's not easy being green, but independence might make it a little easier.


Read more: "Four futures for an independent Scotland"


This article appeared in print under the headline "Wind will power Scotland's green ambitions"


Issue 2971 of New Scientist magazine


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Feedback: Primary school puzzler


Feedback is our weekly column of bizarre stories, implausible advertising claims, confusing instructions and more


THE Welsh government recently circulated a parents' and carers' guide to literacy and numeracy tests in the country's schools. Feedback now seeks help with our homework, which is to interpret a graph from the guide.


It plots "progress score" against school year. The caption explains, perhaps: "progress scores shown are for a child taking the Year 3 test in 2013 and the Year 4 test in 2014. The solid line on the progress score charts represents the mid-point in the progress scores achieved in each year group. Half of the children taking the tests would be expected to achieve a score that lies between the two dotted lines." These, on the graph, were labelled "Progress score 2013" and "Progress score 2014".


The caption goes on: "A quarter of the pupils in each year ...


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SpaceX unveils sleek, reusable Dragon crew capsule


(Image: SpaceX)


First cargo, now crew – the uber-modern "space taxi" known as the Dragon V2 is ready for passengers. At an unveiling ceremony yesterday, complete with smoke effects and coloured lights, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave the world its first glimpse of the upgraded Dragon spacecraft.


NASA is already using an unpiloted version of Dragon to send cargo to the International Space Station and return valuable gear and scientific experiments. But Musk has always wanted Dragon to become a reusable ride for astronauts.


The new vehicle has simple silvery walls, seats for up to seven passengers and a set of flatscreen control panels. The spacecraft can dock itself to the ISS without help from the space station's robotic arm. But the most radical aspect of the redesign is the landing gear, which will allow astronauts to set the spacecraft down on solid ground.


Space chopper


The current version of Dragon deploys a parachute as it descends and splashes down in the ocean. Dragon V2 instead comes with a set of incredibly powerful SuperDraco engines, each capable of producing more than 70,000 newtons of thrust. The engines will allow astronauts to better manoeuvre in space as well as control their trajectory for re-entry.


"You'll be able to land anywhere on Earth with the accuracy of a helicopter," Musk said during the event at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California. The engines are encased in protective shells, and they are set up in pairs so that if one fails, the other can give a boost of power to compensate.


The Dragon V2 also has sturdier heat shields, which brings SpaceX a step closer to realising its goal of developing spacecraft that are fully and rapidly reusable. SpaceX has successfully tested a set of landing legs on a rocket used to send the uncrewed Dragon to the ISS, and Musk hopes to soon make it possible for rockets and crew capsules to simply be reloaded with propellant and flown again, much like commercial airplanes.


"As long as we continue to throw away rockets and spacecraft, we will never have true access to space," says Musk.


Rodent crew


Like passengers in today's commercial aeroplanes, riders of the Dragon V2 won't get much leg room in the capsule's tight quarters. But the craft does include touchscreen interfaces to control the spacecraft, as well as manual buttons for critical functions that would be needed in case of emergency.


Passengers on the Dragon V2 won't get much leg room (Image: SpaceX)


NASA astronauts are not set to ride in the Dragon V2 until 2017. However, a colony of mice and rats will make the journey on the next SpaceX cargo launch, becoming the private company's first mammalian passengers.


The rodents are set to spend six months on the ISS and will be the subjects of various experiments on the long-term effects of microgravity on mammal physiology. The results will hopefully prove handy for Musk, who hopes to eventually shuttle humans on the long trip to MarsMovie Camera.


When the Dragon V2 does launch with its first commercial crew, the face of space travel is going to change. "It will no longer be heroic to go to space – it will become a commodity – and it's about time," says John Logsdon, a space policy expert at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington DC. "What will count is what people do once they get there."


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Curved screens make our brains light up with pleasure


Why are ever more curved-screen gadgets being launched? It seems bendiness has deep aesthetic appeal and will spur new materials and manufacturing methods


THE future looks curvy. A spate of gadgets sporting concave displays has already been launched, and the big manufacturers will soon be hurling yet more TVs and smartphones with curved screens on to the shelves. Rumours continue to swirl that even Apple's forthcoming iPhone 6 will bend to the craze later this year.


There's more to the trend than just a novel shape, though. It may be tapping into a deep-seated desire to get away from the hard corners and rectangles that have defined our appliances for decades. The craze for curves is also fueling a search for materials and manufacturing techniques that will help companies exploit it to the full.


"The first adjective used by people to describe curves is 'soft'," says Oshin Vartanian, a neuroscientist at the University of Toronto, Canada. "The story about curvature is a real story about emotion in the brain."


Vartanian and colleagues espouse the fledgling field of neuroaesthetics – understanding the neurological basis for our appreciation of beauty. Last year, he used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test people's reactions to pictures of household interiors, asking them to rate rooms as "beautiful" or "not beautiful". A large majority favoured rooms with curved features and furnishings over ones packed with straight lines. The scans revealed that curved contours tended to stimulate the pleasure centres of the brain, whereas angles activated circuits in areas that detect threats (PNAS, doi.org/swv).


The findings reinforce a similar study conducted in 2010 at the Walters Art Museum in Baltimore, Maryland, where visitors were shown objects with straight or curved outlines. Here, too, fMRI showed they had a preference for curves.


But electronics has been trapped within a straight paradigm for decades, mostly because of limitations in our manufacturing know-how. That's changing. Samsung's Galaxy Round smartphone, released in South Korea last October, uses a bendable version of Corning's Gorilla Glass called Willow. Corning has since announced an upgraded version, its 3D Gorilla Glass, which it says can bend up to 75 degrees without breaking. And in an industry where even a small advantage in a product's looks can translate into billions in extra revenue, some manufacturers are turning to sheets of artificially grown sapphire for their next-generation screens.


Companies selling curved screens say they offer tangible benefits. The concave shape reflects less light at the viewer, allowing screens to be dimmer and thus extending battery life. Adding a curve to a widescreen TV enhances a screen's central sweet spot, giving the viewer the illusion of being immersed in the action.


Not everyone finds curviness a big deal. "It's distinct and different and unique. It does create a 'wow' factor," says Paul Gray of industry analysts NPD DisplaySearch. "But the reasons for curvature beyond the styling seem to be extremely tenuous."


Some industry-watchers believe the fascination will prove to be a fad, but curved screens remain a fast-growing market. Gray's firm projects that global curved TV shipments will grow from 800,000 units this year to more than six million by 2017 – proof that we like what we see.


This article appeared in print under the headline "Bending the rules"


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Eye candy: Video game visuals that hijack your brain



07:03 30 May 2014


Want to get rich out of making video games? Don't worry about winning awards for your graphic artistry – hire some psychologists instead. They can tell you how the simplest of games can hijack our brain's evolved instincts to keep players hooked. Sally Adee and Douglas Heaven


Read more: "Obsession engineers: Mind control the Candy Crush way"






Image 1 of 7


Pattern recognition

Humans like matching up patterns. We're born that way: even infants can work out that round pegs don't go into square holes. Casual puzzle games like Tetris (shown here), Candy Crush Saga , Bejeweled and Puyo Puyo tap into this affinity, which may explain why their main objectives are similar: the player must match up the random shapes that appear on screen with other shapes to clear the board and score points.


(Image: EA)






Scotland: Four futures for an independent Scotland


On 18 September, the people of Scotland will vote on whether their country should become independent of the UK. This article is part of our "Four futures for an independent Scotland" special report, looking at the choices a newly independent Scotland could make


SMALL nations can shape their own destiny, and this can be both a blessing and a curse. If the Scots opt for independence, they would do well to heed other small nations before them.


Research by the innovation-fostering charity Nesta has looked at small countries that have prospered in the last few decades. Take tiny Estonia, with a population one-quarter the size of Scotland's. It is the poster child for newly independent states. Estonia's government took advantage of freedom from the USSR in 1991 to turn the country into a technology superpower in miniature. From the free public Wi-Fi in Tallinn to compulsory coding lessons in schools, Estonia bet big on IT. And it paid off: Estonians built the technology behind Skype and run a host of cool start-ups.


But for every Estonia there's an Iceland. Around the time the Estonians embarked on their technological adventure, the Icelanders set themselves up as the buccaneers of international capitalism. It ended badly, with the country's banks collapsing and the country facing years of painful austerity.


So an independent Scotland must choose its path carefully. There are a number of directions it could decide on: oil-investment paradise, renewable-energy Mecca, high-tech playground.


None of these three scenarios is a sure-fire hit. High-tech industries could always go the way of "Silicon Glen", a region in central Scotland where electronics manufacturers once flocked. In its heyday in the mid-1990s, it was claimed that Silicon Glen produced 35 per cent of PCs in western Europe. But this success vanished almost overnight when the dotcom bubble burst and companies headed east in search of lower costs.


Such scenarios are plausible futures for Scotland, and there is also a fourth future; one that is more troubling. Without a plan or a sense of where to take the nation, it is possible that an independent Scotland may drift into business-as-usual. Or perhaps from an economic point of view, it would be more accurate to call this business-and-financial-services-as-usual – the time-honoured British model of an economy run by bankers, built on debt and managed to the timetable of the quarterly financial results.


As the experience of Iceland and the Republic of Ireland shows, this is a perilous path, especially for a small country. It's partly about risk: as we have seen, the financial services sector can act as an engine for the economy, but it has a nasty habit of blowing up on the motorway.


There is also something deeper at stake: if Scotland makes the wrong decisions about its own economic future, it risks ending up as a backwater to the rest of the UK, with England – and London in particular – sucking away its brightest and best.


Independence offers a chance for Scotland to shape its destiny, but whatever future it aims for, it must avoid clinging to the old British habit of muddling through.


Read more: "Four futures for an independent Scotland"


This article appeared in print under the headline "Take the high road?"


Leader: "Don't let new boundaries cut off UK science"


Stian Westlake is executive director of research at Nesta in London. Nesta's report, When Small is Beautiful: Successful innovation in smaller countries, will be published on 30 June


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Teen growth spurt left Richard III with crooked spine


Shakespeare famously labelled King Richard III a hunchback, but a new analysis suggests England's last Plantagenet king had a different spinal deformity – one with a cause that continues to elude modern medicine.


Richard is among the most controversial of English monarchs, accused by some of grabbing the throne by foul means. He held power for just two years before his defeat – and death – at the battle of Bosworth Field in 1485.


Perhaps the earliest description of Richard's unusual physique came from contemporary chronicler John Rous who wrote unflattering descriptions of the late king's physical stature. Until recently, with the exact whereabouts of Richard's body unclear, it was difficult to know whether Rous's description of Richard as stunted and with unequal shoulders was accurate or was merely Tudor propaganda designed to vilify him.


Killed in battle


The situation changed in September 2012. In a Leicester car park just miles from Bosworth Field, archaeologists discovered the 500-year-old skeleton of a young adult with a twisted spine. The skeleton's location, in the choir of an ancient church that once stood on the site, suggested that it belonged to an important individual, and injuries preserved in the bones are consistent with death during a fierce battle.


By February 2013, with preliminary genetic data suggesting that mitochondrial DNA from the skeleton matched that from two of Richard's living maternal descendants, the researchers felt confident in claiming they had discovered the remains of the missing king.


Initial analysis of the skeleton confirmed that Richard really did have a spinal deformity that would have made his right shoulder higher than his left. Now, the team has used 3D CT scans to study the spine in more detail, which has revealed more about the exact nature of Richard's condition and its effect on his physical movement.


Corkscrew twist


The mid-portion of Richard's spine twisted up like a corkscrew, but the individual vertebrae are relatively free from abnormalities – a pattern that the team says is seen in people who develop a spinal abnormality late in childhood. Until the age of 10, Richard probably had a perfectly straight spine.


This is consistent with a condition called adolescent onset idiopathic scoliosis, says Piers Mitchell at the University of Cambridge, a member of the team that carried out the latest analysis of the skeleton. "It tends to happen when people go through their adolescent growth spurt," says Mitchell – and it is more common in slim people who are going to be particularly tall. "It seems that their growth spurt is just faster than the controls around the spine can balance everything, so you get this corkscrew forming in the curve of the spine."


But, as the "idiopathic" label suggests, why some people develop scoliosis during adolescence is unclear. "It's slightly more common in certain families, and certain genes have been linked to it, but the vast majority of people with this form of scoliosis don't seem to have an obvious gene abnormality," says Mitchell. It's unlikely to have a common hormonal trigger either, or to be tied to nutritional deficiency. "We don't know exactly why it happens."


Richard's scoliosis was severe but, perhaps surprisingly, it is unlikely to have caused him much trouble, says Mitchell. Despite the curve in the mid-portion of his spine, Richard's straight lower back was aligned with his straight upper back. "The good bits of his back effectively corrected for the bad bits," says Mitchell, suggesting that Richard could have walked and exercised as effectively as his subjects.


Unproved identity


That's assuming – as the new paper does – that the skeleton is indeed that of Richard. Earlier this year, Michael Hicks at the University of Winchester, UK, called into question whether the remains truly are royal – particularly given that carbon dating can only place the skeleton's date of interment to somewhere within an 80-year window, and that others alive in the late medieval period would have had mitochondrial DNA matching Richard's.


Until the DNA evidence can be firmed up with information from the skeleton's nuclear DNA, the identity of the body should be treated as unproved, says Mark Horton at the University of Bristol, UK. "There's a real danger of circularity creeping in here before all the scientific evidence has been properly published," he says.


Mitchell says that extra evidence does strengthen the conclusion that the skeleton is Richard's, but he is unable to say more until the work is published. "Our research team does have that evidence, and would not be claiming this is Richard III unless we had strong reasons to do so."


Journal reference: The Lancet, vol 383, p 1944


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Hidden paintings of Angkor Wat appear in digital images


(Image: Antiquity Publications)


Ghostly riders, temples, boats and palaces live again after lost paintings at the temple of Angkor Wat in Cambodia were resurrected using digital techniques.


During a 2010 visit, Noel Hidalgo Tan of the Australian National University in Canberra spotted faint traces of red paint on some walls of the temple. Using an algorithm originally developed by NASA, Tan took digital photographs of the decorations (upper image) and enhanced the colours to expose them in all their glory (lower image).


The paintings are particularly notable because they seem to date from a mysterious "middle period" of the temple's history, during the 16th century, when it was converted from Hindu to Buddhist use.


It is not the first time that modern imaging techniques have revealed Angkor Wat's secrets: ground-sensing radar and high-resolution aerial photographs revealed a huge urban sprawl that once surrounded the temple.


Journal reference: Antiquity, vol 88, p 549


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Suicide watch prison sensor keeps an eye on inmates


A sensor that keeps tabs on inmates’ breathing rate and heartbeat could save lives in the slammer


US PRISONS could soon have their fingers on inmates' pulses. A new device that can detect a prisoner's vital signs from a wall or ceiling metres away could be used to tackle steep suicide rates in the penal system.


The sensor, which was funded by the US Department of Justice, monitors inmates' heartbeat, breathing and movements for signs of self-harm.


Suicide is a big problem among inmates in the US, accounting for 35 per cent of deaths in local jails and 5.5 per cent of deaths in state-run facilities in 2011. Inmates who appear to be at risk can be assigned extra personnel to check on them several times every hour, but this is expensive and invasive. Sensors would be cheaper and intrude less, while still alerting prison officers when they need to intervene.


Developed by General Electric, the devices can be mounted inside prison cells, where they keep track of inmates' movements and vital signs using Doppler radar. The company modified standard radar equipment to pick up the delicate movements of the chest caused by breathing and heartbeat. The system can penetrate non-metallic objects such as furniture, which could be useful if an inmate tries to hide under a bed.


The technology was trialled last year at the Western Correctional Institution in Cumberland, Maryland. Ten members of the prison staff spent around 90 minutes locked in cells, moving around, breathing at different rates and holding their breath as if they had stopped breathing.


The device proved to be 86 per cent accurate at determining whether someone in a cell required assistance.


The technology could help alleviate what is a major issue for prisons, says Kevin Lockyer, a criminal justice consultant in Lincolnshire, UK. But he says it should be combined with preventative services such as therapy to tackle the underlying causes of suicide.


"It's got to be part of a holistic response to those individuals and the issues," he says. "Do you deal with the symptoms or do you deal with the disease?"


General Electric is exploring ways to commercialise the system – not just for prisons. It could be adapted to look after newborn babies or elderly people that require close monitoring, says company spokesman Todd Alhart.


However, Moeness Amin, an electrical engineer at Villanova University, Pennsylvania, says such applications would be difficult because the environment outside prisons is more chaotic and could trip up the system.


"You have many issues in a typical home that do not exist in a cell. An empty room with a person is much easier than a person in a typical bedroom," says Amin.


This article appeared in print under the headline "Information from the inside"


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Obsession engineers: Mind control the Candy Crush way


Why are we addicted to games? (Image: Patrick George)


How do you design a hit video game? Psychologists are diagnosing what gets us addicted – a recipe for obsession that could hurt or heal us


IN APRIL, a landfill in New Mexico disgorged proof of a decades-old rumour.


The story goes back to 1983, when James Heller was given an unusual job. His bosses at video-game maker Atari wanted him to drive out to the desert with 750,000 copies of their latest game, and bury them there. Over decades the story acquired the status of urban legend, an illustration of the quality of the game in question, ET: The Extraterrestrial. Despite a $21 million outlay, Atari's expected blockbuster was an unmitigated flop, and was later dubbed "The worst game of all time".


Now consider Flappy Bird, a game that, despite having been created by a single developer ...


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Europe's eagles under threat from vulture-killing drug


A drug that has already obliterated many of India's vultures is now threatening eagles and vultures in Europe and Africa. Golden eagles may be among the species at risk.


India's Gyps vultures began disappearing in the 1990s. They were succumbing to a painkiller called diclofenac, which was given to cattle. The drug lurked in the cattle carcasses that the vultures feasted on, got into the birds' bloodstream and destroyed their kidneys.


Now it seems diclofenac has the same effect on eagles, which also feed on cattle carcasses. Yet the drug has recently been approved for use in Spain and Italy, home to some of Europe's biggest populations of vultures and eagles.


Dying raptors


In February 2012, two dead steppe eagles (Aquila nipalensis ) turned up in a dump for cattle carcasses near Bikaner, in Rajasthan, India. Anil Sharma and his colleagues from the Indian Veterinary Research Institute in Izatnagar found telltale signs of kidney failure such as uric acid crystals.


Kidney failure is also typically seen in vultures that have died after eating cattle treated with diclofenac. Sharma also found traces of diclofenac in the eagles' tissues, at the same levels seen in killed vultures.


This does not prove that diclofenac killed the eagles, says Sharma, but this is how the drug kills vultures. If the drug is to blame, it is bad news for steppe eagles, many of which winter in India and rely on cattle carcasses.


Family affair


Steppe eagles may not be the only birds at risk. At least five of the eight species in the Gyps genus are susceptible to diclofenac. If the steppe eagle is susceptible, the rest of its genus Aquila could be too.


There are 14 Aquila species including several more in south Asia, a few in Africa, and Europe's golden and Spanish imperial eagles. All scavenge cattle carcasses.


And all are now exposed. Diclofenac was registered for use in cattle in Italy and Spain in November 2013. It has been sold in Africa for veterinary use since 2007, and conservation organisation BirdLife International says the drug is already affecting vulture populations there.


Diclofenac dieback


The Vulture Conservation Foundation (VCF) wants diclofenac banned in Europe and has set up a petition. But they say officials are only offering to change the drug's label, to recommend it not be given to cattle that are likely to be eaten by vultures.


Europe has spent millions of euros to bring back vultures and eagles, and in 2012 authorised farmers to leave dead animals out for the birds to eat. " We do not think that a warning will ensure the safety of vultures and eagles," says Sharma's colleague Toby Galligan of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds in Sandy, UK.


Such carcasses may pose a particular threat to eagles. They range widely, particularly golden eagles, whereas European Gyps vultures are restricted to limited feeding places. Toxicologists have calculated that the liver of one treated cow can kill 15 vultures, and eagles are smaller so probably need less to die.


Journal reference: Bird Conservation International, DOI: 10.1017/S0959270913000609


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We are killing species at 1000 times the natural rate


First the bad news. Humans are driving species to extinction at around 1000 times the natural rate, at the top of the range of an earlier estimate. We also don't know how many species we can afford to lose.


Now the good news. Armed with your smartphone, you can help conservationists save them.


Interactive map:: Where the threatened wild things are


The new estimate of the global rate of extinction comes from Stuart Pimm of Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, and colleagues. It updates a calculation Pimm's team released in 1995, that human activities were driving species out of existence at 100 to 1000 times the background rate (Science, doi.org/fq2sfs).


It turns out that Pimm's earlier calculations both underestimated the rate at which species are now disappearing, and overestimated the background rate over the past 10 to 20 million years.


Gone gone gone


The Red List assessments of endangered species, conducted by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), are key to Pimm's analysis. They have evolved from patchy lists of threatened species into comprehensive surveys of animal groups and regions.


"Twenty years ago we simply didn't have the breadth of underlying data with 70,000 species assessments in hand," says team member Thomas Brooks of the IUCN in Gland, Switzerland.


By studying animals' DNA, biologists have also created family trees for many groups of animals, allowing them to calculate when new species emerged. On average, it seems each vertebrate species gives rise to a new species once every 10 million years.


It's hard to measure the natural rate of extinction, but there is a workaround. Before we started destroying habitats, new species seem to have been appearing faster than old ones disappeared. That means the natural extinction rate cannot be higher than the rate at which they were forming, says Pimm.


For the most part, the higher estimate of the modern extinction rate is not caused by any acceleration in extinctions since 1995. One exception is an increase in threats to amphibians, partly due to the global spread of the killer chytrid fungus.


Save everything


The big unknown is what the high current extinction rate means for the health of entire ecosystems. Some researchers have suggested , but there's still no scientific way to predict at what point cumulative extinctions cause an ecosystem to collapse. "People who say that are pulling numbers out of the air," says Pimm.


Still, it seems unlikely that extinctions running at 1000 times the background rate can be sustained for long. "You can be sure that there will be a price to be paid," says Brooks.


Pimm's team has also compiled detailed global maps of biodiversity, showing the numbers of threatened species and total species richness in a global grid consisting of squares 10 kilometres across.


Such maps can help conservationists decide what to do.


For instance, Pimm and his colleague Clinton Jenkins of the Institute for Ecological Research in Nazaré Paulista, Brazil, noticed high numbers of threatened species on Brazil's Atlantic coast. Local forests were being cleared for cattle ranching. So they are working with a Brazilian group, the Golden Lion Tamarin Association, to buy land and reconnect isolated forest fragments.


But conservationists need more data, and you can help, through projects like iNaturalist. Users share photos of the creatures they see via iPhone and Android apps, and experts identify them. "Right now, someone is posting an observation about every 30 seconds," says co-director Scott Loarie of the California Academy of Sciences in San Francisco.


Interactive map: Where the threatened wild things are


Journal reference: Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1246752


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Scotland: Oil and gas at heart of Scots' future wealth


On 18 September, the people of Scotland will vote on whether their country should become independent of the UK. This article is part of our "Four futures for an independent Scotland" special report, looking at the choices a newly independent Scotland could make


AS DUSK falls, Grangemouth starts to glow. Cloaked in clouds of steam and lit by flares like giant candles, Scotland's biggest oil refinery has a strange beauty. Situated roughly halfway between Edinburgh and Glasgow on the Firth of Forth, the 700-hectare petrochemical complex is a vital hub of UK oil production. Should Scotland vote for independence, it will be one of the new government's key assets.


According to the industry, there are between 15 and 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas left under the North Sea. About 42bn barrels have been extracted since production began there in 1967. Because prices have risen, 24bn barrels could be worth £1.5 trillion – more than the value of all the oil and gas extracted so far. "That gives us one of the best financial safety nets of any country in the world," the Scottish government says. If the UK's Trident nuclear submarine base moves from the river Clyde after independence – as Scottish nationalists say it must – then prospecting off the west coast could begin too. It is currently banned in case it interferes with naval operations there.


There will be a few other tricky issues to resolve, like where the lines are drawn to demarcate which fields belong to an independent Scotland and which to the UK, and how the £35-£50bn cost of decommissioning old oil rigs would be divided up.


Ultimately the plan is to emulate Norway, and invest at least some of the created wealth for the future. Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, has promised to put aside about £1bn a year, with the aim of generating a £30bn oil fund over a generation.


Norway's equivalent, the Norwegian Pension Fund Global, has amassed over £500bn from oil and gas revenues since it was set up in 1990. It is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund and owns 1.3 per cent of all the world's listed companies.


According to Bjørn Vidar Lerøen, an adviser to Norway's industry body, Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, there was political consensus on the fund from the start. "The oil belongs to the people and revenues from oil production shall be used to build a better society," he says. The Norwegian fund has a wide-ranging ethical policy that forbids investments in more than 60 companies involved in tobacco, arms, environmental or human rights abuses. Ironically, it is now reviewing whether to disinvest from fossil fuel companies because of the damage they do to the climate.


But there is one way in which Scotland would probably not be able to copy Norway: the Norwegian government's 67 per cent ownership of the oil company Statoil. "To try to nationalise companies would not be politically possible either in Scotland or the UK," says Uisdean Vass, an oil specialist at legal firm Bond Dickinson in Aberdeen.


Perhaps the biggest conundrum, though, is the climate. According to WWF Scotland, burning 24bn barrels of oil and gas could put more then 10bn tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – more than 120 times Scotland's current annual emissions. "The science is clear," says the environmental group's director, Lang Banks. "The planet certainly can't afford to allow all the oil left in the North Sea to be burned."


Read more: "Four futures for an independent Scotland"


This article appeared in print under the headline "Oil and gas is at heart of Scots' future wealth"


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Forget the dentist's drill, use lasers to heal teeth


Open wide, this won't hurt a bit. That might actually be true if the dentist's drill is replaced by a promising low-powered laser that can prompt stem cells to make damaged hard tissue in teeth grow back. Such minimally invasive treatment could one day offer an easy way to repair or regrow our pearly whites.


When a tooth is chipped or damaged, dentists replace it with ceramic or some other inert material, but these deteriorate over time.


To find something better, researchers have begun to look to regenerative medicine and in particular to stem cells to promote tissue repair. Most potential stem cell therapies require the addition of growth factors or chemicals to coax dormant stem cells to differentiate into the required cell type. These chemicals would be applied either directly to the recipient's body, or to stem cells that have been removed from the body and cultured in a dish for implantation.


But such treatments have yet to make it into the doctor's clinic because the approach needs to be precisely controlled so that the stem cells don't differentiate uncontrollably.


Let there be light


Praveen Arany at the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research in Bethesda, Maryland, and his colleagues wondered whether they could use stem cells to heal teeth, but bypass the addition of chemicals by harnessing the body's existing mechanisms.


"Everything we need is in the existing tooth structure – the adult stem cells, the growth factors, and exactly the right conditions," says Arany.


So they tried laser light, because it can promote regeneration in heart, skin, lung, and nerve tissues.


To mimic an injury, Arany's team used a drill to remove a piece of dentin – the hard, calcified tissue beneath a tooth's enamel that doesn't normally regrow – from the tooth of a rat. They then shone a non-ionising, low-power laser on the exposed tooth structure and the soft tissue underneath it. This allowed the light to reach the dental stem cells deep inside the pulp of the tooth.


Twelve weeks after a single 5-minute treatment, new dentin had formed in the cavity. Similar dentin production was seen in mice and in cultured human dental stem cells.


It not quite the end of the dentist's intervention though, they would still need to cap the tooth to protect it, because the stem cells that produce enamel are not present in adults.


Sweet spot


The team found that the laser light indirectly activates growth factors called TGF-betas, which stimulate stem cells in teeth to regenerate dentin. These growth factors are present in many tissue types, and have key roles in many other biological processes including development, immune responses, inflammation and wound healing.


The laser essentially creates "micro-injuries" that free growth factor molecules, activate stem cells and promote regeneration, says stem cell biologist James Monaghan of Northeastern University in Boston. "As long as the stem cells are accessible, this may be a promising approach."


"There is a therapeutic sweet spot in this mechanism, between the low-powered laser applications, and the wide range of biological possibilities that TGF-beta offers," says Arany.


The simplicity and likely low cost of the procedure are also advantages, he says. "Patients may experience some discomfort following the procedure, as would be expected in all healing processes, but at the low power setting for stimulating dentin, the laser treatment itself is barely discernible," says Arany.


Journal reference: Science Translational Medicine, DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.3008234


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